The third China-Indian Ocean Region Forum (CHIORF) that has been hosted in Kunming from December 14-16, 2024, represents Beijing’s latest theatrical performance in its relentless pursuit to dominate the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
The very premise of this forum exposes China’s geographical overreach – a nation that doesn’t even border the Indian Ocean yet audaciously positions itself as a regional leader. The forum’s evolution is quite unusual. Originally scheduled to be held in Male in August 2024, the hasty venue change to Kunming following Maldives’ request speaks volumes about the growing regional skepticism toward Chinese intentions.
With over 200 delegates from 20 countries and international organizations in attendance, Beijing continues its attempt to craft a narrative of regional leadership while masking its true strategic ambitions.
This year’s focus on ocean-based infrastructure, digital empowerment for the blue economy, and cultural exchange for marine tourism serves as a thin veil over China’s expansionist agenda. The emphasis on combining aid, investment, and trade. Beijing’s familiar playbook has already left several nations in the region struggling with unsustainable debt and compromised sovereignty. The historical context is crucial. Looking back at the first two forums held in November 2022 and December 2023, a pattern emerges of China’s methodical attempt to create alternative regional platforms that bypass established multilateral mechanisms. This strategy deliberately undermines existing frameworks like the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), where China holds only dialogue partner status, much to its chagrin.
The forum’s fundamental contradiction lies in its very name, which is “China-Indian Ocean Region.” This geographical absurdity would be amusing if it weren’t part of a calculated strategy. China, thousands of kilometers removed from the Indian Ocean, is attempting to rewrite regional geography through economic coercion and diplomatic manipulation. It’s akin to Antarctica claiming leadership of tropical affairs or landlocked Mongolia hosting a Pacific Ocean forum. Beijing’s track record in the region reveals its true intentions. The “debt-trap diplomacy” that ensnared Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port, turning it into a 99-year Chinese lease, serves as a cautionary tale. Similar patterns are emerging in Pakistan’s Gwadar Port and various infrastructure projects across the region. These aren’t development initiatives; they’re strategic assets in China’s quest for maritime dominance.
The digital empowerment agenda discussed at the forum masks China’s technological colonization attempts. By promoting its digital infrastructure and systems, Beijing seeks to establish surveillance networks and data control mechanisms across the IOR. This digital silk road is less about empowerment and more about entrenchment of Chinese technological standards and control. The cultural exchange component for marine tourism is particularly ironic given China’s aggressive behavior in maritime regions closer to home. Nations in the South China Sea can testify to Beijing’s real approach to maritime relations that is one of bullying, artificial island building, and territorial aggression. This track record makes China’s promises of peaceful maritime cooperation ring hollow. The forum’s timing is significant, coming at a moment when many nations are reassessing their relationship with Chinese investments and influence. The initial plan to host in Male, and its subsequent reversal, highlights the growing regional awareness of China’s true intentions. More nations are beginning to recognize that Chinese aid comes with hidden costs and strategic strings attached.
China’s exploitation of the region is multifaceted. While preaching “shared development,” Beijing’s actions consistently prioritize its strategic interests over regional benefits. The predatory lending practices, opacity in project implementations, and disregard for environmental and social impacts have become hallmarks of Chinese engagement in the region. The contrast between CHIORF’s stated aims and China’s actual behavior is suspicious. While the forum speaks of cooperation and shared prosperity, China’s military modernization, including its expanding naval capabilities and establishment of bases like Djibouti, reveals its true strategic calculus. These aren’t the actions of a benevolent development partner but of a power seeking to establish hegemony.
The region needs genuine partnership, not patronage disguised as cooperation. The Indian Ocean’s historical identity as a free and open maritime space is increasingly threatened by China’s attempt to establish a sphere of influence through economic and infrastructure projects that serve Beijing’s strategic interests. As the third CHIORF unfolded in Kunming, far from the waters it purports to serve, the countries in the region must see through this charade. China’s attempt to craft a leadership role in the Indian Ocean Region is not just geographically misplaced but strategically dangerous. The future of the Indian Ocean Region should be shaped by regional stakeholders through established multilateral frameworks, not by an external power’s unilateral attempts to remake the region in its own image. China’s maritime masquerade through CHIORF cannot hide its exploitative agenda. The region’s nations must remain vigilant against this sophisticated attempt at maritime colonization dressed up as development cooperation. The Indian Ocean’s destiny must remain in the hands of its legitimate stakeholders, not an ambitious external power seeking to redraw the region’s strategic landscape for its own benefit.
